Caribbean, U.S. on alert as tropical wave may strengthen next month - UPI.com (2024)

AccuWeather meteorologists are tracking a feature over the Atlantic Ocean that has a chance of evolving into a tropical storm before approaching the United States during early August.

The feature has some hurdles along the way, but conditions may become more favorable for development later on, especially as it approaches the U.S.

Advertisement

During the summer and autumn, a series of low pressure areas, known as tropical waves, moves from the Indian Ocean across Africa then the Atlantic. Of these, a small number go on to evolve into tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes. August marks a time when the number of tropical waves that organize tends to increase substantially.

Caribbean, U.S. on alert as tropical wave may strengthen next month - UPI.com (1)

One particular tropical wave that caught AccuWeather meteorologists' attention last week is a few hundred miles to the east of the easternmost islands of the Caribbean. The wave has a medium chance of developing.

Advertisement

"The tropical wave is currently battling a harsh environment in a sea of dry air as it moves west across the Atlantic," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "The dry air is working to keep the wave from gaining any organization."

Wind shear, which is the effect of stiff, steady breezes in one direction or shifting directions, can inhibit tropical development or, in some cases, cause an established tropical storm to weaken.

Caribbean, U.S. on alert as tropical wave may strengthen next month - UPI.com (2)

"Toward the end of this week, the wave will move into an area with fairly low shear and ample moisture, and that could allow some organization and strengthening," DaSilva added.

This feature will interact with another ripple in the atmosphere early this week, causing the two to consolidate into one low-pressure area.

Exactly how these two interact and where they re-form as a single storm may determine the future path near the Caribbean this week and perhaps the U.S. beyond.

GET THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP

"A major caveat is where the storm tracks," DaSilva said, "If it tracks north [or south] of the Greater Antilles, then it will have a better chance to develop as it will be removed from the towering mountains of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba." Large, high mountains disrupt the wind flow of a tropical feature and can inhibit its wind intensity.

Caribbean, U.S. on alert as tropical wave may strengthen next month - UPI.com (3)

Advertisement

A wave that bounces westward, along the high mountains of the Greater Antilles, would likely struggle to organize. However, if the center stays away from the islands and their mountains, the waters are sufficiently warm to allow organization and strengthening.

Should the storm track north of the big islands in the northern Caribbean later this week, it would more likely be a concern for the East Coast of the U.S. later on. On the other hand, should the storm track just south of the big islands, it may be more concerning for the U.S Gulf Coast later on.

If the storm passes close to or over the islands, a period of heavy rain, gusty thunderstorms and rough seas will progress westward over part of the northern Caribbean. How intense conditions become will depend on the strength and track of the system.

Heavy rain that triggers flash flooding and mudslides could be a concern as well as high winds that might lead to damage and power outages. Building seas would create dangerous coastal conditions for boating and beach interests and possibly storm surge coastal flooding.

Another player will be a large area of high pressure over the central Atlantic, pushing the storm to the west, but only for so long. Later this weekend to next week, steering winds should turn the tropical feature to the northwest or north near the U.S.

Advertisement

Because of these conditions, everyone from the northern Caribbean to the Bahamas and from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the Carolinas will have to watch this tropical feature closely.

By later this weekend to early next week, the storm could be turning northward along the U.S. Atlantic coast or could be churning waters over the Gulf of Mexico, prior to moving onshore.

Caribbean, U.S. on alert as tropical wave may strengthen next month - UPI.com (4)

Assuming the feature has gained strength, even if it does not directly head toward a location along the U.S. Atlantic or Gulf coasts, seas and surf would build well in advance, resulting in a marked increase in the strength and frequency of rip currents, at the very least.

Should the feature roll ashore as a tropical storm or hurricane, impacts could be severe.

Caribbean, U.S. on alert as tropical wave may strengthen next month - UPI.com (5)

AccuWeather has not wavered from its prediction of a super-charged hurricane season for 2024 since this past winter.

Record-setting Category 5 Hurricane Beryl demonstrated the concern AccuWeather's team of experts had about the potential energy available to extremely warm Atlantic waters.

As dry air diminishes and the effects of La Niña unfold late this summer and fall, great numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes are forecast, along with the likelihood of additional systems that rapidly intensify as Beryl did.

Advertisement

Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts&trade are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.

Read More

  • Week after hurricane, 184K people remain without power in Houston area
  • More than 1.6 million homes in Texas still without power after Hurricane Beryl
  • Tropical Atlantic soon could come alive with Caribbean threat
  • NASA successfully launches GOES-U weather satellite on SpaceX's Falcon Heavy
  • Tropical activity may brew near Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean by mid-June
Caribbean, U.S. on alert as tropical wave may strengthen next month - UPI.com (2024)

FAQs

Is there a tropical wave in the caribbean right now? ›

There are currently no active storms in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico.

Which Caribbean island doesn't get hurricanes? ›

Vincent & the Grenadines. North of Grenada and to the west of Barbados, this 32-isle archipelago that includes the paradise of Bequia likewise escapes getting struck directly during most hurricane seasons.

What is the definition of a tropical wave? ›

It's also known as an easterly wave, according to the National Weather Service. Diving a little deeper, a tropical wave is an area of low pressure in the atmosphere that moves west across the Atlantic basin, which includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

What is the weather like on a cruise to the Caribbean? ›

Caribbean Weather FAQs

Weather-wise, mid-December through mid-March is the best time for a Caribbean cruise. These are the driest months, with sunny skies, little rainfall, and pleasantly moderate temperatures. Expect average lows in the 70s and highs in the 80s.

Can there be a tsunami in the Caribbean? ›

The north-eastern Caribbean region near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola is more susceptible to tsunamis. The average rate of occurrence in this area has approached 1 every 50 years in the last 200 years. In other sub-regions such as the southern Caribbean there are no historical records of destructive tsunami impacts.

What months to avoid the Caribbean? ›

Hurricanes occur during the low season, specifically from June 1 to November 30. The risk peaks in August and September and occasionally extends into October and even November. Travel companies generally advise against going to the Caribbean during these months.

Which Caribbean islands are not worth visiting? ›

On the basis of crime rates, some of the least safe Caribbean Islands to visit include Puerto Rico, Haiti, and Trinidad and Tobago. However, it's important to note that most crime in the Caribbean is an internal problem, primarily linked to inner-city neighbourhoods far from tourist resorts.

What island is safest for hurricane? ›

The southern Caribbean islands closest to South America typically see fewer storms and are generally considered the best options to visit during hurricane season. They include: Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao, which are world-class scuba diving destinations collectively known as the ABC Islands.

Is Barbados better than Aruba? ›

Barbados — due to its bigger size and location — offers more beaches and variety, as well as better surfing and scuba diving. Aruba can't be beat for endless beach walks, some diverse beaches with rock formations, and wind- and kite-surfing.

What is the best time of year to cruise in the Caribbean? ›

What is the best time of year to go to the Caribbean? December through April is the peak season for Caribbean cruising. During this time, you'll experience the best weather and some of the most entertaining holidays and festivals.

What months are best to go to the Caribbean? ›

The Caribbean is home to some of the best warm places to visit in December, January, and February, which are also the region's high season. Because of spring holidays and generally good weather, March and April are also regarded as part of the high season.

Is there a tropical storm in the Caribbean right now? ›

There are currently no active storms in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico. Click each image above to view the full-size image.

What does M stand for in hurricane? ›

H: Hurricane - wind speed between 74 mph and 110 mph. M: Major Hurricane - wind speed greater than 110 mph.

Do Tropical waves turn into hurricanes? ›

Warm ocean waters and thunderstorms fuel power-hungry hurricanes. Hurricanes form over the ocean, often beginning as a tropical wave—a low pressure area that moves through the moisture-rich tropics, possibly enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity.

What is the current flow in the Caribbean? ›

Caribbean Current, powerful surface oceanic current passing west through the Caribbean Sea, then north through the Yucatán Channel, and finally east out the Straits of Florida to form the Florida Current.

What is the weather like in the Caribbean now? ›

Cloudy skies this morning followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. High near 85F. Winds SW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

Which Caribbean island has waves? ›

The top surf destinations in the Caribbean. If we had to pick out the places where we'd say reign supreme for surfing in the Caribbean, it would be the Dominican Republic, Barbados, and Puerto Rico. Together, they do the best on those winter N swells and offer the most developed surf communities.

Are there tidal waves in the Caribbean? ›

According to historical records, potentially destructive tsunamis strike the Caribbean region once per century, with this figure doubling for certain areas of higher seismic or volcanic activity.

Top Articles
Latest Posts
Recommended Articles
Article information

Author: Barbera Armstrong

Last Updated:

Views: 6230

Rating: 4.9 / 5 (59 voted)

Reviews: 90% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Barbera Armstrong

Birthday: 1992-09-12

Address: Suite 993 99852 Daugherty Causeway, Ritchiehaven, VT 49630

Phone: +5026838435397

Job: National Engineer

Hobby: Listening to music, Board games, Photography, Ice skating, LARPing, Kite flying, Rugby

Introduction: My name is Barbera Armstrong, I am a lovely, delightful, cooperative, funny, enchanting, vivacious, tender person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.